MCX NATURAL GAS

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 U.S. natural gas slides to 3-month lows amid lack of cold weather

U.S. natural gas futures fell sharply, hitting the lowest level since November as forecasts continued to call for mostly warmer-than-normal weather in key regions across the U.S. for the rest of the winter. Trading activity was light as markets in the U.S. remained closed for President’s Day. Prices of the heating fuel sank 7% last week, taking its losses for the year to almost 24%, as forecasts for warm winter weather weighed on heating demand expectations. Based on data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, this year’s extremely warm winter has pushed heating demand for natural gas to nearly 20% below average. Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw in a range between 86 and 97 billion cubic feet in the week ended February 17. That compares with a withdrawal of 114 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, 117 billion a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 158 billion cubic feet. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.445 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 12.4% lower than levels at this time a year ago and 3.5% above the five-year average for this time of the year. Without significant demand for natural gas, inventories could stay near record levels and may even continue to pull prices even lower.

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MCX GOLD NEWS UPDATE

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 Gold marginally down at MCX in quiet trade as U.S. holiday mutes action

Gold prices ended marginally lower at MCX, with investors hesitant to take strong positions due to the U.S. national holiday for President’s Day. Trading activity was light as markets in the U.S. remained closed for President’s Day on Monday. Market players also awaited further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting as well as housing-related data for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. There are also more than a few Fed speakers this week, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the U.S. central bank will likely need to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting, although she flagged considerable uncertainty over economic policy under the Donald Trump administration. Fed fund futures priced in a less than 15% chance of a rate hike in March, according to Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Headlines from Washington will most likely remain in focus in the week ahead, as traders await further details on President Donald Trump's promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending.

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MCX BASE METAL & ENERGY

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 Copper, zinc and nickel rebound on supply concerns

The price of copper bounced back above $6,000 a tonne as a dispute affecting production at the world's second-biggest copper mine worsened, while zinc was boosted by a drop in inventories. Supply issues dominated the base metals market, with nickel also gaining ground to reach a two-month high as the market tracked the latest plans by the Philippines to close mines on environmental grounds. Further tightening supplies is a strike at Chile's Escondida copper mine, the world's biggest, which has extended into a second week. Both Grasberg and Escondida declared force majeure last week. Representatives of Escondida, controlled by BHP Billiton, plan to attend talks with striking workers on Monday as long as the union does not interfere with a shift change for non-union employees. Zinc has gained 10 percent this year on concerns that the closure and suspensions of big mines will create shortages. Nickel extended recent gains as the Philippines' environment minister said on Monday that she stands by her decision to shut more than half the country's operating mines ahead of a meeting to review the move.

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Weekly Report MCX Metals & Energy

Gold prices fell on Friday as the stronger dollar outweighed concerns about uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy and upcoming elections in Europe. The precious metal still notched up a weekly gain of 0.35% as uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump spurred safe haven demand for bullion. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.44% to 100.89 late Friday, reversing Thursday’s 0.72% drop and leaving it up 0.16% for the week Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $17.97 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week with gains of 0.25%. Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer price inflation jumped 0.6% in January, the biggest increase in almost four years. Another report showed that U.S. retail sales also outstripped expectations, increasing 0.4% last month. The upbeat data came a day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in testimony to the U.S. Senate that the bank is on course to raise interest rates at one of its forthcoming meetings. Oil futures added a few pennies on Friday, but posted their first weekly decline in five weeks as concerns over rising production and swelling stockpiles in the U.S. offset efforts by major producers to cut enough output to reduce a global glut. For the week, New York-traded oil futures slumped 46 cents, or nearly snapping a four-week winning streak. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude supplies rose by 9.5 million barrels last week to an all-time high of 518.0 million barrels. OPEC and non-OPEC countries have made a strong start to lowering their oil output. Latest data showed the group’s production in January declined by 890,000 barrels a day from the previous month to 32.14 million barrels a day. The drop indicates a 90% compliance level so far. Natural Gas sank 2.0 cents, or almost 0.7%, to a three-month low of $2.834 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly loss of around 7%. Copper was down 0.39% at $2.708 a pound and ended the week down 2.55% amid profit taking, but prices looked set to remain supported amid concerns over supply disruptions. A strike at BHP Billiton Escondida in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, has boosted sentiment as has an output halt at Freeport-McMoRan's giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia. In the holiday shortened week ahead, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its February meeting on Wednesday, which will be scrutinized for clues on the timing of the next rate hike. Investors will be looking to U.S. housing data in order to see whether the rise in consumer spending and inflation is translating into higher house prices and a pick-up in home sales. Markets will also be watching survey data on private sector activity in the euro zone on Tuesday.

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MCX HNI Crude Oil Update

MCX Crude Oil future were trading higher during afternoon trade in the domestic market on monday as investor and speculators widening their position in the energy commodity amid optimism on efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output and bring the market into balance.

However, gains were limited as investors gauged whether an increase in the US drilling rings and record stockpiles would undermine efforts by OPEC. Last year, OPEC and other Producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 Million barrels per day ( bpd) during the first half of 2017.

At the MCX, Crude oil future for March 2017 contract is trading at Rs. 3625 per barrel, up by 0.58 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3611, against a previous close of Rs. 3604, IT touched the intraday high of Rs. 3628.

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MCX CRUDE OIL WEEKLY LEVELS & DAILY TREND

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Trading Range	3720-3440
Short Term Trend	BULLISH
Long Term Trend	BULLISH
Resistance 3	3865
Resistance 2	3752
Resistance 1	3680
Pivot point	3568
Support 1	3497
Support 2	3384
Support 3	3313

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MCX Crude Oil Intraday Trend

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 Oil eased on concerns over US crude supply

Oil futures eased back Friday, caught between larger-than-expected growth in US crude stocks and reports that OPEC members may exercise an option to extend a pact to cut production by six-months. Many factors are driving oil prices right now, including whether or not OPEC production cuts will be extended past June and the US’s “ability to ramp up shale production to mitigate the impact of the production cuts. Oil traders are also looking at lower demand for U.S. gasoline, amid high supplies of the fuel, and weighing developments in the global economy. The cartel OPEC, along with other key producers including Russia, agreed last year to cut around 1.8 million barrels a day of oil output starting in January. The six-month deal sent prices around 20% higher, which has provided incentive for producers outside of the pact, including in the U.S., to increase their output. On Thursday, Reuters reported that OPEC sources said the cartel could extend the six-month deal to cut supply, or make more severe cuts, if oil stocks don’t drop by around 300 million barrels to the five-year average. According to OPEC’s latest oil report, commercial oil stocks of the OECD countries fell by 33.8 million barrels in December for the fifth consecutive month, but at 2.9 billion barrels, it is still around 299 million barrels above the latest five-year average.

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